The "John Titor" phenomenon...

Note: this article has now moved to the-john-titor-phenomenon on Cipher Mysteries

I recently mentioned an online Voynich-mentioning novel by Benjamin Kerstein called Josef6 (which you can read here), pointing out various parallels with the Dan Burisch story.

I've since had a nice email from Benjamin, who mentions that he was more directly inspired by a real Internet story, known as the John Titor phenomenon. This concerned someone posting to a time travel website between November 2000 and end-March 2001, claiming to be a time-traveller coming back in time from 2036. There's a well-known Unix date issue in 2038 (not entirely dissimilar to the whole Y2K nonsense), and "Titor" claimed to have come back to retrieve an IBM 5100 computer to debug some code.

But who was this "John Titor"? The punchline here is that an Italian TV documentary ("Voyager - Ai confini della conoscenza") from 19th May 2008 pointed the finger at computer expert John Rick Haber, brother of Larry Haber - the owner of all commercial rights concerning John Titor, and the only person who claims to have confirmed Titor's existence.

Now that's what I call a proper hoax. :-)

German skeptic conference...

At an upcoming skeptical conference in Darmstadt from 1-3 May 2008 (with a loosely Creationist / Intelligent Design / paranormal theme), the "scientist [and] author" Klaus Schmeh will be giving a talk on the Voynich Manuscript. There's a German blog entry here, in which Schmeh sets out his stall: which is that, basically, the VMs is (just as Gordon Rugg & Andreas Schinner have claimed) a 16th century hoax.

This kind of superficial category error sets my teeth on edge every time I encounter it: such people seem to think that a "hoax" explanation must somehow also be the most "skeptical". Actually, if they would bother to look at the object (rather than at the EVA transcriptions), they would find that the VMs has 15th century quire numbers, and a complex codicological history. Sixteenth century hoax theories requires that all those many layers of evidence be part of the hoax too: of course this is a "possibility", but multiplying the various unlikelinesses together, you end up with a dwindlingly small final probability.

Instead, a properly skeptical reading would say: "the presence of 15th century hand-writing in the quire numbers is a strong indication that the manuscript was made no later than 1500, while the presence of various art history features in the drawings points to an earliest date of around 1440. Explanations significantly outside this date range would require strong evidence to support them, which has not yet been found or demonstrated. And that's about as far as we can reasonably go at the moment."

What I'm getting at is that the hoax hypothesis displays the wrong kind of incredulity to be genuinely skeptical: it portrays the evidence itself as incredible, rather than "typical" Voynichian hypotheses (Cathar, Alien End-Times, Old Ukrainian, Baconian telescopy and microscopy, Leonardo etc) themselves as incredible. The curious Voynich solution mentioned in one of the comments to the German web-page on Schmeh seems to fall into this general category, sadly.

Beale Papers: solved (or not)?

Here's a claimed solution to the Beale Papers (but press Cancel on the login popup, and if browsing there under Windows, I wouldn't advise installing the ActiveX control that pops up) which I didn't know about until very recently. I thought I'd mention it here because, as any fule kno, the Beale Papers are one of the few encrypted historical mysteries to parallel the Voynich Manuscript to any significant degree.

To be precise, the Beale Papers comprise not one long ciphertext (putting the VMs' thorny Currier A-B language continuum issue to one side) but three short codetexts, all allegedly dating from 1819-1821: part 2 was publicly announced in 1885 already solved (for its codebook, the encoder used a slightly mangled/miscopied version of the Declaration of Independence)... but the directions to the buried treasure were in the undecoded part 1, while the shorter (and also undecoded) part 3 listed the people involved. Of course, only someone who has broken the two remaining codes would know if all of this is true or not. :-)

So, it's basically a kind of Wild West bandit take on a pirate treasure map (which to me sounds like an Alias Smith and Jones script, oh well) but made obscure with some kind of dictionary code: all of which is reassuringly familiar if you've just read PopCo. Confusingly, some people argue that the Beale Papers are a fake (possibly by the promoter of the 1885 pamphlet, or even by Edgar Allen Poe, etc), claiming justification from statistical aspects of the cryptography and/or on claimed anachronisms in the language, etc: but a definitive answer either way has yet to be found.

For what it's worth... my opinion is that, as with the VMs, cries of hoax are more Chicken Licken than anything approaching an ironic postmodernist reading. Really, it does look and feel basically how a home-cooked Victorian code-text ought to, with an emphasis towards lowish numbers (up to 350) plus a sprinkling of higher numbers (possibly for rare or awkward letters): Jim Gillogly's observation (in October 1980 Cryptologia) of an alphabet-like pattern in part 1 (if you apply part 2's codebook) seems to me more like a clue than a reason to reject the whole object as a hoax. As an aside, a few years ago I heard (off-Net) whispers of one particular cryptographic solution that had yet to be made public: but Louis Kruh in Cryptologia reported several such plausible-looking solutions as far back as 1982, so what can you say?

However, all of this is an entirely different claim to the "Beale Solved" code solution linked above, which was (re)constructed by Beale treasure hunter Daniel Cole (who died in 2001). Even though the dig that was carried out as a result of Cole's decryption revealed an empty chamber (the website claims), the cryptographic details (ie, of how the codetext links with the plaintext) have yet to be released... which is a tad fishy.

A quick check of the first page of Cole's version of part 3 reveals that he didn't read it as a simple cipher or codebook, because repeated code-numbers only rarely get decoded as the same letter (for example, the five instances of '96' get decoded as "s / e / r / h / n"). Yet this seems somewhat odd: if there was some kind of strange offsetting going on, the distribution of code-numbers would not need to so closely resemble the kind of distribution you see in code book ciphers.

But once you confess to having taken a single step down the whole "it's actually a strange cipher pretending to be a codebook code" route, nobody will believe a word you say, right?

When hoaxes go bad...

Years ago, I was told that in Greece, gamblers who pull off a big coup are feted: there, making money for nothing is apparently seen as a kind of heroic alchemy, something to which everyone should aspire. And because hoaxes - stunts carried out not for art's sake, but to swindle - surely fall into this category just as much as many of the historical alchemists' "projections", it should be obvious why some Voynich researchers should link the swindler/alchemist Edward Kelley with the manuscript.

However, one good reason to be wary of Voynich hoax hypotheses is that, in the real world, the people (and the stories) behind hoaxes do tend to surface: as Shakespeare wrote, "but at the length truth will out". Tricky things tend to be collaborative, even if in only a loose way: I can say from my experience in the games industry that being a "lone gunman" on a high complexity project is a hard gig, like being an uomo universale with a spaceship to build. Anyway, where's the fun in conspiring on your own?

Regardless, all of this hoax-based free association was triggered by the article this month by Philip Mantle on the people behind the famous "Alien Autopsy" hoax. As you'd expect, all kinds of collaborative technical trickery was required to make it seem even remotely feasible: and the main technician behind the story (Cypriot-born video wizard Spyros Melaris) is now emerging to tell his story.

There's a longer transcript of the interview here: but if you simply have to know more, you'll probably be more interested in Spyros Melaris' book "ALIEN AUTOPSY: The True Story". It's a bit pricy (£37.50), comes with a DVD, though doesn't yet seem to be available: email AATrueStory@DIGInetUK.com for more details (allegedly). Confusingly, there's a (different) 2006 DVD out there with exactly the same name, presented by Eamonn Holmes: and you already know about the Ant & Dec "Alien Autopsy" film, so I'll skip past that too. Just so you know.

The punchline here is that, in the fullness of time, the only certain way to get participants in a big hoax to keep quiet is to kill them all, Hollywood stylee... and I don't really think that happened with the VMs. It also seems to me that Kelley gives the impression of having an enormous ego and a big mouth, particularly near the end of his life (he was a golden knight, after all), and if there was one iota of self-aggrandisement to be had out of his association with a strange manuscript, he would have done his best to extract it. But the record is silent.

Dutch Voynich hoax bloggery...

I just stumbled across part 1 and part 2 of a long-ish Dutch blog entry on hoax theories of the Voynich Manuscript, specifically Gordon Rugg's Cardan grille nonsense. If, like me, you don't speak Dutch, note that Google Translate's Dutch-to-English translation appears not to be working, and so use FreeTranslation.com instead (which does work fine).

Actually, I do (thanks to Tanya) have a single Amsterdam survival phrase, which I learnt long before I was married: "Zeker niet, mevrouw: ik word getrouwd!" Anyway, moving swiftly on...

What tickled me about the Dutch bloggery was the fact that the people commenting on it were amused by f78r's "qokedy qokedy dal qokedy qokedy" sequence, with one of them asking "Wat dacht je van de smurfen?" All of which prompted (Proust-stylee) long-buried memories of the abysmal Smurf collectible figurines BP gave away as promotional items in the 1970s (and which are doubtless now worth the GDP of Morocco each) to surface. I just never dreamed I'd join Smurfs and the Voynich Manuscript in the same sentence. Life is strange.

Incidentally, 2008 marks the 50th anniversary of the Smurfs' burf: thankfully, the movie tie-in has been delayed to 2010 (though if we're really lucky, Paramount will cancel it first). But here's a blog entry on them that does ring true (oh, and here's a working Smurf Name Generator).